Military Power: A Reply

This article argues that the prewar planning process for postwar Iraq was plagued by myriad problems, including a dysfunctional interagency process, overly optimistic assumptions, and a lack of contingency planning for alternative outcomes. These problems were compounded by a lack of civilian capacity during the occupation period, which led to a complicated and often uncoordinated relationship with the military authorities who found themselves taking the lead in many reconstruction activities. Taken together, these mistakes meant that US success on the battlefield was merely a prelude to a postwar insurgency whose outcome remains very much in doubt more than three years later.     

Notes on contributors

In 1897 and 1898, Winston Churchill participated in what late Victorian Britain termed ‘small wars’, first on India's northwest frontier and then in the vast wasteland of the Sudan. Churchill chronicled his experiences in these conflicts in personal letters, dispatches to newspapers, and in his first two books, The Story of the Malakand Field Force and The River War. These writings provide a snapshot of a particular period in the formative years of the great statesman, demonstrating through Churchill's eloquent analyses many of the contradictions concerning the conduct of small wars that have emerged in the present era.     

弹丸飞行时间拟合误差对射击诸元误差的影响

分析了基本射表中弹丸飞行时间拟合误差对射击诸元误差的影响,给出了因时间拟合误差引起的射击误差的解析表达,并利用5条典型航路分析了飞行时间拟合误差对射角、射向误差的影响,得出了不同航捷、航高、斜距、目标速度下拟合误差对射击诸元误差的影响关系,从而为确定弹丸飞行时间拟合精度提供依据.     

基于证据理论的军械装备修理能力认证评估方法

借鉴AHP法建立军械装备修理能力认证评估体系,并构建其递阶层次模型。确立体系各级指标权重中,引入D-S证据理论对多专家意见进行融合;综合考虑专家的权重和不确定度,并采用单值转换分布概率算法对专家评价分数进行换算,改进了AHP法受专家经验、知识限制,主观性强等缺点。经算例分析,该方法能准确可靠地评价型号装备修理机构的修理能力,减少专家主观因素对评估结果的影响。     

基于AHP与熵权的舰艇编队信息作战能力模糊综合评估

在确立了舰艇编队信息作战能力评估指标体系的基础上,运用AHP和熵权法,得到评价指标的综合权重.通过模糊综合评判,得出综合评判总分.以舰艇编队的信息侦察处理能力为例进行综合评估.最后通过进一步研究分析,构建了一种数学模型,用于找出影响舰艇编队信息作战能力的薄弱指标.     

Convoys to combat Somali piracy

As the world becomes increasingly globalized, interruptions to international trade cannot be permitted. Piracy off the coast of Somalia has hampered international trade in the region and poses significant risks to the sailors required to navigate those waters. Over the past three years the global community has attempted, through a number of different naval tactics, to stop these acts of piracy; however, these tactics have proven ineffective. This article looks at historical precedence and military theory to support the concept of using convoys to protect the thousands of cargo vessels traveling round the Horn of Africa every year. This tactic will greatly decrease the number of successful pirate attacks and save countless lives in the process.     

On the brink: The resurgence of militant Islam in Central Asia

Since Operation Enduring Freedom, Central Asian militants, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, have fled to Pakistan from their previous strongholds in Afghanistan. However, many militants have begun returning to Central Asia. Thus questions are raised as to what extent militancy has the potential to thrive with the pending North Atlantic Treaty Organization withdrawal from Afghanistan set for 2014? Is militancy a legitimate security threat to Central Asia? What strategies might militants implement? Thus, this article examines the current state of militancy, analyzes militant trends, introduces Afghanistan and Pakistan into the Central Asian equation, and determines the militants' capability and overall strategy. The article concludes that militant Islam, regardless of its current numbers, remains a viable threat to regional security, Afghanistan will be an essential factor for the future of Central Asian militancy, and the form this re-emergence will take becomes apparent.     

简析政府职能转变之明确性原则——以消防法律文本为视域

政府职能转变是一项浩大、复杂的系统工程,不仅需要正确的方向,也更需要科学的方法.其中,明确性就是一个必须遵守的原则.审视政府消防管理职能50年的文本变迁,对政府职能转变与明确性原则关系进行了现实考察,进而分析明确性原则与政府职能转变关系进路.     

液体储罐泄漏数学模型的改进研究

在液体储罐泄漏过程中,罐内压力是随泄漏时间变化的量,泄漏强度也随罐内压力而变化,但在已有对液体流泄漏数学模型的建构中,在后果计算时没有全面考虑罐内压力以及罐内液体闪蒸导致空间的物质量,获得的结果用于后果评价,就必然与实际情况存在偏差.应用数学方法,对液体泄漏模型进行改进,改进后模型把罐内压力以及罐内空间的物质量作为变量,可较真实模拟出泄漏时泄漏强度、储罐内气体压力及泄漏量随时间变化的大小情况,并模拟了孔洞液体泄漏,得出不太可能发生灾难性事故的结论.     

高层建筑安全疏散设计探析

近年来我国高层建筑剧增,承载的人口越来越密集,火灾荷载越来越大,如果安全疏散设计不合理,一旦发生火灾,容易造成严重后果.在分析高层建筑的火灾特点和影响人员安全疏散的因素的基础上,从合理设置安全出口、疏散走道、疏散楼梯、疏散宽度和距离、疏散门、避难层及其他辅助疏散设施、疏散照明灯具等方面探析了高层建筑的安全疏散设计,为避免和减少人员伤亡和财产损失创造条件.